Thursday, November 22, 2012

Mario Draghi - No Economic Recovery This Year

On November 8, the president of the European Central Bank – Mario Draghi, said that the eurozone’s economic state does not show significant signs of recovery by the end of this year, despite the easing conditions of the financial market.

ECB is now it the wait for a hint to use the newly found programme for purchasing bonds. Its main rate was held at 0,75%, postponing cuts in the cost of borrowing. The wait could turn out longer than expected, now that Spain has completed successfully this year’s funding on capital markets.
ECB is ready to purchase bonds of governments with unpaid debts like for example Italy and Spain, as soon as they are signed up to a programme of bailout with tight conditions, under OMTs. Requests have still not been made, yet markets were eased by the announcement.
Draghi explained at a news conference that it is expected for the activity of the economy within the eurozone stay weak, although it’s being supported by their position of monetary policy. The confidence of the financial market has definitely improved.
In the 4th quarter, the economy of the eurozone will shrink, according to some recently released data. The only response by the ECB would be the cutting of rates. Survey evidence did not give any hints for stabilisation within this year and the euro zone remains at risk.
ECB’s forecast for the GDP next month will be downgraded. In 2013 the inflation will fall below 2%. The ECB will try to ensure that a looser policy finds its way to households and companies in the eurozone. The new plan for purchasing bonds is the definitive tool of the ECB. However, it will only activate if a government of the eurozone requests aid from the rescue fund of the bloc, given that it embraces strict supervision internationally. The president of the ECB said that he could not imagine a scenario, extreme enough for the banks to begin purchasing bonds with no conditions.
Policymakers and investors of the eurozone are making Spain ask for help, but Mariano Rajoy – the Prime Minister refuses to do so. He says that he has to be assured that the ECB will bring down the debts of the country.
4.8 bln euros of Spanish debt were sold. That would include Spain’s first issue in the long term of eighteen months. This would do to complete this year’s financing programme as well as start raising next year’s funds.